Autonomous vehicles (AVs) aren’t just hype anymore—they’re part of daily rideshare life in a handful of big U.S. markets. And in those places, drivers have been raising concerns: since AVs showed up, many have noticed their earnings slipping.
We wanted to understand if those concerns were reflected in the numbers. Using anonymized and aggregated data, we looked at activity in AV launch markets and compared it to a national baseline. The results line up with what many drivers have already been saying: earnings in AV-active cities are under pressure. While nationwide trends show modest growth, AV markets are moving in the opposite direction.
The impacts don’t look the same everywhere, but the patterns are hard to ignore. In some cities, the drop shows up as lower hourly pay. In others, it’s fewer trips during high-demand periods, shrinking incentive offers or other factors that used to help boost weekly totals.
A quick note on the numbers you’ll see below: they reflect median results across large groups of drivers and are meant to show market-level trends, not any one person’s experience. Your results will vary based on when and where you drive, your app mix, and how quickly you pivot. That’s why we close each section with practical moves—and why we encourage you to lean on your own personalized insights as you test changes week by week.
Here's what we cover:
When AV services launched in each city
The timing of AV rollouts helps explain why driver earnings look different from city to city. Here’s a quick timeline of when autonomous rideshare started in the major AV markets:
- Phoenix: Waymo began full commercial service on October 8, 2020.
- San Francisco: Waymo expanded operations on June 25, 2024.
- Los Angeles: Waymo service launched on November 12, 2024.
- Austin: Waymo began operating through its Uber partnership on March 4, 2025, followed by Tesla’s limited Cybercab rollout on June 22, 2025
How driver earnings are shifting in AV cities
When you look closer at the numbers, it’s clear that AV markets aren’t following the same earnings trends as the rest of the country. Here’s what stands out:
How much are drivers in AV cities making per ride?
Nationwide, pay per trip rose modestly—up 3.4% year-over-year from July 2024 to July 2025. But AV cities didn’t keep pace. Austin drivers saw a 5.3% drop, San Francisco dipped 3.1%, and Phoenix was down 2.4%. Los Angeles held nearly flat with a slim 0.4% gain.
How much are drivers in AV cities earning per hour?
Hourly pay fell everywhere AVs are active, even as the nationwide average increased by 1.0%. The sharpest declines were in San Francisco (–6.9%) and Austin (–5.3%), with Los Angeles (–4.7%) and Phoenix (–3.8%) also sliding. This means drivers in those cities are making less per hour of work compared to the same time last year.
What’s happening with incentive pay in AV cities?
Platform incentives—things like streaks, quests, or non-trip bonuses—are shrinking nationwide, not just in AV markets. On average, incentive pay per trip fell 47.1% YoY. But the cuts were even deeper in Los Angeles (–65.3%) and Phoenix (–64.0%). San Francisco’s decline matched the national trend, while Austin saw a smaller, though still meaningful, drop of –33.0%. These cuts are happening everywhere, but in some AV cities they’re hitting harder.
What’s happening to monthly earnings in AV cities?
When you zoom out to total monthly pay, the picture is uneven. Los Angeles (–18.4%), Phoenix (–9.0%), and Austin (–7.0%) all saw meaningful declines, while San Francisco actually posted a 7.8% increase—close to the nationwide gain of 8.0%. That increase in San Francisco may come from drivers putting in more hours, since both hourly pay and trips per hour have declined there.
How many trips per hour are drivers in AV cities getting?
Trip volume per hour also shifted in different ways across markets. Austin (+1.3%) and Phoenix (+0.9%) saw small gains, but Los Angeles (–9.9%) and San Francisco (–5.1%) dropped sharply. Nationwide, trips per hour slipped by –2.7%. In LA and San Francisco, fewer rides per hour help explain lower hourly pay. But in Austin and Phoenix, trip counts held steady or even grew—suggesting other factors, like trip length or changes in rider mix, are driving down earnings.
City snapshots: Austin, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco
Here’s how the four AV cities in our sample are trending right now. These are median year-over-year shifts at the market level, but not a judgment on any one driver. Local events, tourism, weather, app policies, and AV rollout pace all play a role—so use this as context alongside your own week-to-week numbers.
Austin
Per-trip and hourly pay are both down –5.3%, with monthly earnings –7.0%. At the same time, trips per hour +1.3% and utilization +1.3% suggest it’s a bit easier to stay busy. If this matches what you’re seeing, consider leaning into higher-value windows (airports, event nights) so the extra activity translates into stronger hourly.
Phoenix
Median per-trip –2.4%, hourly –3.8%, and monthly –9.0% point to softer pay, even though trips per hour +0.9% and utilization +1.4% nudged up. In practice, that can feel like more pings but slightly thinner rides. Timing your blocks around dinner peaks, weekends, and stadium/concert surges can lift the average ticket without adding long hours.
Los Angeles
LA shows the steepest pullback in this group: monthly –18.4%, with hourly –4.7%, trips per hour –9.9%, and utilization –8.6%. Promos also cooled more than the national trend. That doesn’t mean you’re doing anything wrong—it means conditions are tougher. The best counter is to be selective: focus on high-confidence demand (major events, airport windows) and keep a flexible app mix so you’re parked where base fares are strongest.
San Francisco
SF is mixed: per-trip –3.1% and hourly –6.9%, yet monthly earnings +7.8%. Many drivers appear to be offsetting lower hourly by shifting when (and sometimes how long) they work. If your hourly looks similar, zero in on the blocks that still deliver—then make those your anchors and trim the rest.
Quick reminder: These are market medians, not destinies. Your results can run above or below these lines depending on your hours, zones, and service mix. In the next section, we’ll distill the key takeaways and then share simple, low-lift adjustments you can test this week to protect—and potentially grow—your earnings. We will also show you practical ways the Gridwise app can help.
What this means for drivers in AV cities
We know every driver’s situation is different, and that’s why these strategies are meant as small tests, not rules. Medians are helpful directionally, but they won’t capture every neighborhood, shift pattern, or app mix.
1) AVs are a factor—but not the only one.
Where AVs are active, some metrics have shifted. But promos, seasonality, local events, tourism, weather, and app policy changes all move earnings too. If your city looks different from the national baseline, it’s more about market dynamics than anything drivers are doing wrong.
2) Nationally, the floor looks stable to slightly positive.
Per-trip, hourly, and monthly figures are up overall. That’s reassuring if you’re outside AV hotspots. Still, national averages smooth over local swings—use them as an anchor, then compare them with your own week-to-week results.
3) Incentives are lighter almost everywhere.
If bonuses feel thinner, you’re not imagining it. This goes beyond AV markets. The practical move: plan around base-fare demand you can count on and treat promos as a bonus when they show up.
4) Small strategy shifts can help offset headwinds.
In several AV cities, drivers seem to keep monthly totals steadier by changing when they drive or leaning into higher-value trips. That doesn’t mean working more hours—it means testing different blocks, staging near predictable peaks, or flexing your app mix to find steadier base fares.
5) Medians aren’t your destiny.
These are market-level medians. Your results can outperform them—especially if your schedule, zones, and app mix line up with local demand. Personalized insights will always be more powerful than national or city-level averages.
Your action plan: put this to work in your city
Here’s how to make the numbers practical. Think of these as small weekly experiments—keep what works in your city, and drop what doesn’t. Remember: these are medians and market trends, not verdicts on your performance.
1) Test one time block each week
Pick two windows you can actually drive (for example, Friday 6–9 p.m. vs. Tuesday 4–7 p.m.) and run each once. Then open Insights → My Trends to compare earnings per hour and trips per hour. Keep the winner next week and replace the loser with a new challenger. Over a few weeks, your schedule shifts toward the hours that pay you best.
2) Build around demand you can predict
When ride flow feels slow, proximity matters. Plan one shift around a major event or an airport bank. Gridwise surfaces Events and Airport signals so you can arrive early, stage just outside congestion, and chain rides while the wave lasts. If When to Drive is available in your market, layer that in to fine-tune start times—then confirm what worked in your Trends.
3) Nudge up your average fare
If per-trip pay has flattened, favor longer, higher-value trips (airports, weekend evenings, big venues). In My Trends, track average trip length alongside per-trip earnings by day and time. When a window reliably produces stronger trips from a certain zone, make it an anchor.
4) Let base pay guide your app choice
With incentives lighter, steady base fares matter more. In your best block, open Insights → Compare Services and filter to that day/time. Compare Uber, Lyft, and delivery by earnings per hour, per trip, and trip volume—then run the app that wins for that block. Quick promo check: bonus ÷ required trips. If the “extra per trip” is small and the window overlaps weak hours in My Trends, skip it.
5) Keep more of what you make
Turn on automatic mileage tracking in the Gridwise app so every mile is logged, including between trips. Record routine expenses like tolls, parking, and car washes as you go. Cleaner records help at tax time and protect your take-home when promos are thin. (For individual tax advice, consult a professional.)
Your weekly testing routine using Gridwise
- Early week: Connect services (if you haven’t), enable mileage, and set a realistic weekly earnings goal.
- Midweek: Run your two test blocks; check My Trends and keep the winner.
- Weekend: Add one Event or Airport window; arrive early and stage smartly.
- Sunday: Use Compare Services to pick the lead app for next week’s best block, lock in one reliable block, pick one new challenger, and log any missed expenses.
Final thoughts
We know earnings aren’t just numbers—they affect your day-to-day and your ability to plan ahead. Nationally, the data points to steady or slightly positive earnings overall, but drivers in AV cities are facing more mixed results and reduced incentives. And because these are medians, it’s natural that your week might look very different.
The best approach is to focus on what you can control. Pay attention to your own trends, try small adjustments, and keep the ones that make a difference for your hourly pay. Gridwise is here to help by showing you how different services compare, helping you plan around events and airports, and tracking miles and expenses so your take-home stays strong. Even small steps—like testing two changes this week and reviewing them on Sunday—can help ease some of the pressure and put more control back in your hands.
We also know AVs add another layer of uncertainty, and that’s why we’ll keep sharing what the data shows—so you’re never left guessing.
